This study estimates future demand for public school classrooms using new projections of the school-age children population for 82 provinces and 33 urbanized cities in the Philippines up to 2060. A return to replacement-level fertility from the current total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 is expected to ease demand for public school classrooms, except in Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, where the population of school-age children is projected to continue increasing. A below-replacement TFR will likely lead to a greater reduction in classroom congestion in public schools. However, significant school infrastructure backlogs and the aging of existing school buildings are expected to remain important issues in the future, despite potential benefits from low fertility. The study also highlights potential contributing factors to current classroom congestion.
